This summer could bring as many as 10 titles with the potential to gross over $100 million in domestic box office. At least three could surpass the $400 million mark. From the top-10 perspective, it could place this summer on par to those of the pre-pandemic 2015-2019 — but there’s a lot fewer summer releases overall and that’s something of a buzzkill.
We’re going the wrong way. Fourth-quarter 2021 box office was 72 percent of 2019; the 2022 box office to date is 58 percent of the same period in 2019. If we’re to meet hoped-for 2022 projections, improvement is critical. Summer is the biggest season and this one needs to be a strong if we have any chance to reach $8 billion. Year to date is a bit over $1.4 billion.
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Paramount
Our best hopes lie with top-tier Marvel titles “Doctor Strange” and “Thor: Love and Thunder” as well as Pixar’s “Lightyear,” all from Disney. Universal has the latest “Jurassic Park” sequel, a new “Minions” animated entry, and Jordan Peele’s “Nope.” “Top Gun: Maverick” finally arrives from Paramount, Warner Bros. has “Elvis” and the animated “D.C. League of Super-Pets.” The top prospect from Sony is “Bullet Train.”
“Strange,” “Jurassic,” and “Thor” have the best shot at over $400 million, a level achieved by only two films since 2019. However, of the three films to hit that mark in 2019, “Avengers: Endgame” grossed $858 million domestic. Combined with “The Lion King” and “Toy Story 4,” they grossed over $1.8 billion. That’s a tall order.
The next tier includes “Lightyear” and “Minions: The Rise of Gru;” “Top Gun: Maverick” could also generate as much as $250 million. (Tom Cruise’s long-gestating sequel is far removed from its 1986 original; imagine a sequel to 1950’s “All About Eve” being released in 1986.)
“Nope” is next most likely to pass $100 million, then “Elvis” and “Bullet Train;” “D.C. League of Super-Pets” could have an outside shot. Presentations at the upcoming CinemaCon could raise prospects for less-heralded titles.
All told, the consensus range for these 10 titles comes to $2.5 billion-$3 billion. At the high end, that would equate to the top 10 of 2019 — but the 37 films that made up the rest of the 2019 summer lineup grossed $1.8 billion. Summer 2022 summer has no chance of that.
For one thing, there are only 20 wide-release films in the rest of this summer’s lineup. A proportionally reduced gross equivalent to 2019 would be $972 million; to achieve that, each of those 20 films would need to average about $50 million. A more practical, if optimistic, total estimate would be at the high end of $800 million. It’s unlikely, but it could happen. Let’s say it does happen, and films come through at their likely maximum ($3 billion). The best possible scenario for this summer is $3.8 billion — 80 percent of 2019. If so, the 2022 total to date would rise to around 70 percent of the same period in 2019. Disney/20th Century Studios That leaves it up to the rest of the year — which includes new “Black Panther” and “Avatar” sequels — to add about $2.2 billion more and reach $8 billion. It’s an optimistic scenario but within the range of possibility. It would place 2022 at 71 percent of 2019 and 67 percent of 2018 even though theaters are operating normally with top-flight releases — albeit significantly fewer, which ultimately undercuts the chance for returning to past levels. Achieving $8 billion would make 2022 the worst non-Covid box-office year since 2001. Calculating by attendance, it would represent the fewest tickets sold in many decades — perhaps since silent days. However many billions this summer bring, that reality can’t be ignored. Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.
